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Generally, whilst we are seeing price rises slowing in some areas, others are proving more stubborn and the path forward isn’t necessarily a clear one. One reason could be wages, which have been moving higher and are supported by tight labour markets. Year-on-year wage inflation in the UK including bonuses was 6.5% in the three months to April 2023, and excluding bonuses 7.3%.
Following a year characterised by volatility and turbulence, 2023 got off to a strong start and though we aren’t out of the woods yet, most asset classes ended the quarter in positive territory. In this quarter’s Talking Research podcast, our team of analysts, who are at the coalface speaking with managers on a regular basis, […]
The balancing act being performed by central banks between taming inflation and avoiding recession got even harder in March as a new fault line emerged in the banking sector. The crises at Silicon Valley Bank and Credit Suisse were idiosyncratic and largely self-inflicted – the former had been without a Chief Risk Officer for most of 2022 whilst pursuing a highly risky investment strategy and the latter had lurched from one well-publicised disaster or scandal to another in recent years.
Bonds have traditionally been a safe haven for investors thanks to lower risk and volatility than equities and alternatives. After the mini budget in September 2022, however, bonds were hit hard, leaving many questioning their role as a diversifier.
What started in community banks in the US is now playing out in the global bond market. To explore what has taken place in the banking sector over the past few weeks, Square Mile’s Investment Director, Chris Fleming is joined by Chris Bowie, Partner and Portfolio Manager of the TwentyFour Corporate Bond fund. — Park […]
What is happening in bond markets? As you will no doubt be aware Credit Suisse has now been taken over by its biggest rival UBS, in a deal struck by the Swiss regulator last weekend. The bank has long been afflicted by a host of problems, caused by poor lending, scandals, and high levels of […]
What are the prospects for economic growth and inflation in 2023? 2022 will be remembered as a year when inflation erupted again after years lying dormant. After rising relentlessly throughout the year, headline rates of inflation in the UK and Europe finally dipped in November. Although they remain high, we expect inflation to continue to […]
Join Square Mile’s Chief Investment Officer, Mark Harries as he talks with James Ashley, Head of Market Strategy at Goldman Sachs Asset Management and Hugh Gimber, Global Market Strategist at J.P. Morgan Asset Management, as they discuss the outlook for the year ahead: inflation expectations, a potentially recessionary environment, and what this all means for […]
Summary After rising relentlessly throughout the year, headline rates of inflation in the UK and Europe finally dipped in November, although they remain cripplingly high. We expect inflation to continue to subside in the months ahead but more important is where it settles in the medium term. What began as inflation in prices of energy […]
Summary There are encouraging signs that inflation in the US may have peaked but we are less confident that the same applies in the UK following the recent weakness of the pound. As before, though, both the timing and heights of the peaks are less important than the levels at which inflation settles in the […]
