Home »
Macro Much like his billowing hairstyle, the cloud hanging over Q4 was equally impossible to ignore and endlessly discussed: Donald Trump’s imminent return as the now-47th President of the United States. Market reactions have been mixed. His presidency is widely forecast to be inflationary, reinforcing expectations that interest rates will stay elevated for longer. His […]
Macro backdrop Interest rates have dominated investor sentiment this quarter, driving pronounced volatility in bond, equity and currency markets. The long-anticipated chapter of monetary loosening began in earnest in the US and UK, with central banks reducing base rates by 0.5% and 0.25% respectively (source: Federal Reserve, Bank of England). This significant move has been […]
Macro Backdrop Inflation and interest rates remained at the forefront of investor concerns throughout Q2 2024. However, the news was more optimistic than previous quarters, with inflation rates lowering to be close to central banks’ targets. This shift paved the way for a fascinating move: the European Central Bank became the first major central bank […]
Macro Backdrop The first quarter of 2024 unfolded with a striking contrast of economic resilience and global tension. The United States, for example, continued to display surprising strength, with GDP growth estimated at around 3% and a still-robust labour market. Europe, as well as the United Kingdom, enjoyed a more positive – or less negative […]
Macro Backdrop Whilst at the year’s open recession fears were one of the key risks highlighted for 2023 thus far, we have escaped a material downturn. This is despite the fact that we have seen significantly higher interest rates, US and European bank collapses and takeovers and an escalation of hostilities in the Middle East. […]
Executive Summary 2023 has been another challenging year with further instability in the Middle East, market volatility and economic uncertainties. Equities in many cases have made good ground and bonds have made some headway after the huge challenges of 2022. We are cautiously optimistic as we head into 2024, with inflation figures falling and the […]
“The combination of mortgages rolling over, going onto a higher fixed rate, the combination of savings being drawn down, the combination of consumer confidence, business confidence being eroded. All of that, to us, points towards consumers now beginning to show the effects of everything going on.” Historically, monetary policy tends to feed through with a […]
It is with great sadness that we find ourselves writing about more conflict in the world, with last week’s events resulting in many atrocities and no doubt much human suffering, and our thoughts and prayers are with those affected by such dreadful events. The ongoing hostility has had an impact on financial markets, with […]
Macro Backdrop As it stands today one of the most anticipated recessions ever has yet to materialise. In fact, economic growth, with the exceptions of Germany and Italy, has broadly been positive across the board, although outside the US recent gains have been much more modest in nature. As we are all painfully aware the […]
What’s the outlook for inflation and interest rates? As we come into the third quarter of 2023, we are seeing inflation slowing in some regions, such as the United States and in Europe, though it’s proving more stubborn in the UK, where core inflation is increasing. This is partly due to wages, which have been […]
