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Macro Backdrop Inflation and interest rates remained at the forefront of investor concerns throughout Q2 2024. However, the news was more optimistic than previous quarters, with inflation rates lowering to be close to central banks’ targets. This shift paved the way for a fascinating move: the European Central Bank became the first major central bank […]
Macro Backdrop The first quarter of 2024 unfolded with a striking contrast of economic resilience and global tension. The United States, for example, continued to display surprising strength, with GDP growth estimated at around 3% and a still-robust labour market. Europe, as well as the United Kingdom, enjoyed a more positive – or less negative […]
Macro Backdrop Whilst at the year’s open recession fears were one of the key risks highlighted for 2023 thus far, we have escaped a material downturn. This is despite the fact that we have seen significantly higher interest rates, US and European bank collapses and takeovers and an escalation of hostilities in the Middle East. […]
Executive Summary 2023 has been another challenging year with further instability in the Middle East, market volatility and economic uncertainties. Equities in many cases have made good ground and bonds have made some headway after the huge challenges of 2022. We are cautiously optimistic as we head into 2024, with inflation figures falling and the […]
“The combination of mortgages rolling over, going onto a higher fixed rate, the combination of savings being drawn down, the combination of consumer confidence, business confidence being eroded. All of that, to us, points towards consumers now beginning to show the effects of everything going on.” Historically, monetary policy tends to feed through with a […]
It is with great sadness that we find ourselves writing about more conflict in the world, with last week’s events resulting in many atrocities and no doubt much human suffering, and our thoughts and prayers are with those affected by such dreadful events. The ongoing hostility has had an impact on financial markets, with […]
Macro Backdrop As it stands today one of the most anticipated recessions ever has yet to materialise. In fact, economic growth, with the exceptions of Germany and Italy, has broadly been positive across the board, although outside the US recent gains have been much more modest in nature. As we are all painfully aware the […]
What’s the outlook for inflation and interest rates? As we come into the third quarter of 2023, we are seeing inflation slowing in some regions, such as the United States and in Europe, though it’s proving more stubborn in the UK, where core inflation is increasing. This is partly due to wages, which have been […]
Generally, whilst we are seeing price rises slowing in some areas, others are proving more stubborn and the path forward isn’t necessarily a clear one. One reason could be wages, which have been moving higher and are supported by tight labour markets. Year-on-year wage inflation in the UK including bonuses was 6.5% in the three months to April 2023, and excluding bonuses 7.3%.
Following a year characterised by volatility and turbulence, 2023 got off to a strong start and though we aren’t out of the woods yet, most asset classes ended the quarter in positive territory. In this quarter’s Talking Research podcast, our team of analysts, who are at the coalface speaking with managers on a regular basis, […]
